CLIMATE CHANGE, RAIN AND EFFECT ON COFFEE COUNTRIES

I’ve read the report from the UNESCO on outlook for water worldwide by 2050, and I am so glad my kids live in British Columbia! The forecast is also worrisome for coffee production according to the International Center for Tropical Agriculture that forecasts impact on coffee-growing lands. There was a synopsis of the bottom line in the Daily Coffee News that lists the winners and losers by region:

Biggest potential winners:  Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda and Burundi, Papua New Guinea, Uganda

Biggest potential losers, immediately:  Central America (especially El Salvador and Nicaragua), Brazil, Viet Nam and India

Biggest potential losers, intermediate term:  Andes region, Indonesia, Brazil again

Also significant in the mix is that even areas that receive enough rainfall will be challenged so that high-grown quality arabica coffee must be grown at even higher altitudes, and there is less land there. For example, most high-quality arabica is grown at altitudes over 1200 meters above sea level (MASL), or just under 4,000 ft. and usually not more than 7,000 ft. or 2200 MASL. There are not too many locations across the world between 23.5 degrees North and 23.5 degrees South with sufficient rainfall AND altitudes in this range AND people who want to grow high-quality arabica coffee. The main areas are East Africa and PNG. It could be that if the market develops, as in SW China for example, more of the population of high-altitude locations in the coffee belt might start growing and producing high-quality arabica. Let’s hope so. Even better, let’s start (as a species) to manage our planet a bit more responsibly.

Enjoy and treasure your coffee!

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